Regional Science Seminar, Kagawa University
Table of Contents
March 2 (Thu.), 2023, 16:00-17:30
ハイブリッド開催
森田 忠士 氏 Tadashi Morita (Kindai University)
Title: Optimal city size with endogenous fertility
February 8 (Wed.), 2023, 16:00-17:30
香川大学幸町北キャンパス2号館2階遠隔教育調査研究室 + Zoom
稲垣 和哉 氏 Kazuya Inagaki (Tohoku University)
Title: 店舗の共起関係に基づいた中⼼市街地における店舗集積の共通構造の推定
Abstract: 中心市街地における各エリアの特徴は，個々の店舗で完結するのではなく，店舗同士が互いに補完し合い，相乗効果を生み出すことで形成されていると考えられる．本研究では，店舗の集積メカニズムを店舗の立地相互作用に基づいて定量的に把握するため，店舗をノード，店舗間の共起関係をリンクとした店舗の共起ネットワークで店舗集積を表現し，店舗の共起ネットワークを生み出した「店舗の潜在的な属性」を推定する手法として，拡張Stochastic Block Model を提案した．国内の主要な10都市を対象とし，店舗集積を生み出した店舗の潜在的な属性を推定した結果，各店舗は13 の潜在的属性に分けることができ，それぞれの特徴は構成される業種から解釈することができた．また，都市間で⽐較した結果，潜在的属性間の共起関係において共通する構造があることが明らかとなった．
June 28 (Tue.), 2022, 13:30-15:00
ハイブリッド開催 香川大学幸町北キャンパス2号館2階 遠隔教育調査研究室
青木 高明 氏 Takaaki Aoki (Kagawa University)
https://www.ed.kagawa-u.ac.jp/~aoki/
Title: 人流データに基づく都市空間構造の可視化: OD 行列の Hodge-小平分解
Abstract: 人流データから「都市の姿」を可視化したい．これが可能になれば，例えば，この３０年間で都心一極集中はどこまで是正されたのか．緊急事態宣言の前後で人流の構造的変化は起こったのかといった議論に，人々の移動行動という視点から答えていくことができる． しかし，人流データをそのまま可視化・理解することは容易ではない．地点の情報ではなく，地点間の関係情報であるためである． その解決として，人流のポテンシャル場を導入する．この手法によって，水が高いところから低いところに流れるように，ポテンシャル場の勾配によって，人流の全体像を直感的に可視化・理解することが可能になる．
Urban spatial structures from human flow by Hodge-Kodaira decomposition, Takaaki Aoki, Shota Fujishima & Naoya Fujiwara, https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.00377
September 10 (Fri.), 2021, 10:30-12:00
香川大学幸町キャンパス・又信記念館（こちらの19番）1階・特別講義室
紀伊 雅敦 氏 Masanobu Kii (Kagawa University)
都市経済モデルに基づく全国都市雇用圏の効用水準の推計
Abstract: 人口減少下における大都市圏への人口集中は，大都市の過密問題と地方の人口減少に伴う様々な問題を一層深刻化させている．本研究では，都市経済モデルにおける世帯行動モデルを用い，基幹統計に基づき全国の都市雇用圏の効用水準を実証的に推計した．その結果，大都市圏では所得は高い一方で住宅費用や通勤時間が長く，地方都市ではその逆の傾向となっており，平均的な選好を持つ仮想的な世帯で見ると，効用水準は都市雇用圏間で均等化しておらず，また人口集中が続く大都市の効用水準が必ずしも高くは無いことが示された．
February 27 (Thu.), 2020, 16:20-17:50（経済学部・経済学ワークショップとの共催）
香川大学幸町南キャンパス・又信記念館・特別講義室
福村 晃一 氏 Koichi Fukumura (Kagawa University)
Skill-Biased Technical Change, Demographics, and Market Size
Abstract: I construct a three-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility decision of heterogeneous and mortal individuals under the Melitz type monopolistic competition in the production sector. Theoretical and numerical analysis reveal that the total number of births may decrease when skill-biased technical change increase the market size and income inequality. It also shows that trade and lower trade cost enforce the tendency of decreasing the fertility with the change. The positive relationship between the income and the longevity plays the key role in the mechanism. These results suggest that redistribution policy from high income people to low income people can be Pareto improving.
January 31 (Fri), 2020, 16:20-17:50
香川大学幸町南キャンパス・幸町南3号館・第二講義室
大城 淳 氏 Jun Oshiro (Okinawa University)
Properties of Property Taxation (with Rainald Borck and Yasuhiro Sato)
Abstract: We explore properties of decentralized property taxation in the system of cities taking location decision of agents into consideration. Fiscal decentralization causes inefficient race to the top taxation because local authorities excessively provide local public goods to attract mobile workers, thereby eroding tax base of other regions. We evaluate the actual tax structure in Japan and Germany by conducting numerical simulations. Comparing to the observed state, the equilibrium tax rates under the decentralized regime are higher in Japan but lower in Germany. Transition to the decentralized regime from the observed one raises social welfare for both countries by 0.2–2.9%. Centralized taxation can mitigate inefficiency of the race to the top behavior. Welfare gains from such coordination are limited.
May 25 (Fri.), 2018, 16:00-17:30
長町 康平 氏 Kohei Nagamachi (Kagawa University)
Spatial Scale of Technology Adoption and Innovational Complementarities: A Consumer-City Perspective
Abstract: The rise and fall of cities after the advent of general purpose technologies (GPTs) and the uncertainties of their progress raise questions such as “To what extent does a GPT diffuse spatially?” and “How should we think about the role of expectations in the development and spatial diffusion of a GPT?” In order to answer these questions, we build a spatial equilibrium model in which a continuum of ex-ante identical cities on a featureless circle experience temporary/permanent size divergence as a consequence of the interaction between firms’ technology choice and migration. In a benchmark environment, firms can freely access a GPT with exogenous technological progress. The analysis shows that the spatial scale of technology adoption and its multiplicity are determined by the mix of transportation costs and technological progress and that migration can act both for and against technology diffusion. It also suggests that expectations supporting an appropriate expansion of the spatial scale of technology adoption is welfare-improving if multiple equilibria exist. The model is then extended to an environment where a technology intermediary employs start-ups to develop a GPT and then licenses it to firms. This allows us to study the interplay between multiple equilibria outlined in the benchmark case and those arising from innovational complementarities between research and development and technology adoption.
April 27 (Fri.), 2018, 16:00-17:30
内藤 徹 氏 Tohru Naito (Doshisha University)
Optimal Cooperation of Medical Care and Nursing Care in a Two-region Spatial Model
Abstract: This paper presents analysis of the optimal cooperation of medical care service and nursing care service under two regions with asymmetric density of patients. We apply Aiura and Sanjo by introducing cooperation between hospitals and nursing care facilities and analyze the effects of cooperation on the equilibrium medical service level, nursing care service level, optimal medical and nursing care fee, and social welfare. Results of analysis show that the introduction of cooperation between hospitals and nursing care facilities increases social welfare, although it decreases the medical care service and nursing care service level in equilibrium.
March 9 (Fri.), 2018, 16:00-17:30
松島 法明 氏 Noriaki Matsushima (Osaka University)
Product Differentiation and Entry Timing in a Continuous-time Spatial Competition Model with Vertical Relations (with Takeshi Ebina)
Abstract: We study the entry timing and location decisions of two exclusive buyer–supplier relationships in a continuous-time spatial competition model. In each relationship, the firms determine their entry timing and location, and negotiate a wholesale price through Nash bargaining. Then, the downstream firm immediately determines its retail price. Our findings are as follows. Ordinarily, if the supplier of the first entrant (called the leader pair) has strong bargaining power, the equilibrium location of the leader will be closer to the center, inducing a delay in entry by the second entrant (called the follower pair). This delay implies the stronger bargaining power of the supplier in the leader pair can also benefit the buyer of the pair. The location of the leader pair can change non-monotonically with an increase in the supplier’s bargaining power, which has a substantial impact on the entry timing of the follower pair. However, the greater the bargaining power of the supplier in the follower pair, the closer the leader pair will be to the edge. This implies that having greater bargaining power will enhance the profitability of the supplier in the follower pair.
February 23 (Fri.), 2018, 14:15-17:30
14:15-15:45
中川 万理子 氏 Mariko Nakagawa (University of Tokyo)
Skill Transference and International Migration: A Theoretical Analysis on Skilled Migration to the Anglosphere
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze how skill transference from an origin to destination country, captured by lower productivity at the destination caused by differences in language use, affect the skilled worker international migration, by using a multi-country NEG model proposed by Gasper et al. (2017). Specifically, our interest is to explain how less frictional countries in terms of linguistic communication such as the Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) attract more high-skilled international migrants. The analysis based on asymmetric skill transference among countries, in which the world is divided into two groups, Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) and non-Anglosphere (non-English-speaking countries), finds that countries in the Anglosphere are more likely to be the industrial core attracting all skilled (and imperfectly mobile) workers than countries in the non-Anglosphere. Also, we find that less frictional migration from the non-Anglosphere to Anglosphere always accelerates industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere core country, while less frictional migration within the Anglosphere and expanding the Anglosphere (an increase in the number of countries constituting the Anglosphere) does not always accelerate industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere due to market crowding effect.
16:00-17:30
岡本 千草 氏 Chigusa Okamoto (University of Tokyo)
The Effect of Automation on US Interstate Migration
Abstract: This study investigates the extent to which job process automation has affected US interstate migration in the 2000s and 2010s. By using data on the degree of automation of each occupation, the magnitude of the impact of automation in each state is calculated. In particular, this study examines how the difference in the impacts among states explains the movement of migrants. The results show that people move to a state with more automation especially in high-skilled occupations. Further, migration flow data classified by skill level show that migrants are mainly high-skilled workers. This finding implies that automation has a complementary effect, or at least not a strong substitution effect on high-skilled workers.
December 22 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
加藤 隼人 氏 Hayato Kato (Keio University)
Transfer Pricing and Firm Location (with Hirofumi Okoshi)
Abstract: Amid economic integration, global concerns have been raised on low-tax countries becoming tax heavens. We set up a two-country spatial model with different corporate tax rates where firms can manipulate transfer prices in intra-firm trade. Using transfer pricing, firms can shift profits between headquarters in their home country and affiliates in their foreign country. The headquarters engages in production, while the foreign affiliates import goods from them to distribute to the foreign market. As trade costs decline, more firms locate their production base in the low-tax country. However, a further decline reverses this location pattern. We also examine tax competition between two-unequal sized countries.
November 17 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
田中 隆一 氏 Ryuichi Tanaka (University of Tokyo)
Do Teachers Matter for Academic Achievement of Students?: Evidence from Administrative Panel Data (with S. Bessho, A. Kawamura, H. Noguchi, and K. Ushijima)
Abstract: This paper examines empirically the effect of teachers on students’ academic outcomes. Using large administrative panel data of reading and math test scores of students in public elementary schools in a municipality in Japan, we estimate the distribution of teacher fixed effects controlling for student, school, and year fixed effects. Our results show that teacher fixed effects are substantial: improvement of teacher fixed effect by one standard deviation raises student’s z-score by 0.23 standard deviation for reading and by 0.32 standard deviation for math. Our estimates show that both teacher’s experience and class size matter for students’ achievement of both reading and math. The magnitude of the teacher effect is equal to the class size effect with reduction of 3.1 students for reading z-score and 5.9 students for math z-score.
October 23 (Mon.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
相浦 洋志 氏 Hiroshi Aiura (Nanzan University)
The Effect of Cross-Border Healthcare on Quality, Public Health Insurance, and Income Redistribution
Abstract: In this study, we examine the effect of cross-border healthcare with public health insurance. We consider its effect on healthcare quality, public health insurance, and income redistribution. We use a two-country Hotelling model in which consumers are divided into two groups: high- and low-income consumers. The governments, which aim to maximize consumers’ surplus, impose a progressive income tax on consumers to provide healthcare services. Under these assumptions, income redistribution in the patient-exporting countries weakens if non-monetary frictions for cross-border healthcare are low.
September 15 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
小橋 文子 氏 Ayako Obashi (Aoyama Gakuin University)
Trade Policy and Production Location with Cross-Border Unbundling
Abstract: This paper studies the role of trade policies in a theoretical framework considering the firm’s global production operation subject to trade costs. The production location potentially depends on a combination of trade costs, inclusive of trade barriers, imposed on different stages of the production process. Meanwhile, the trade policy decision of a government alters trade costs, and thereby affects the firm’s location decision on whether to offshore the production base and the sourcing decision on whether and which intermediate inputs to source domestically or import from abroad. A government might care about the impact of its trade policy choice on the locations of the firm’s global production activities in order to better exploit its market power over world prices with trade policy intervention. The paper features the assembly-relocation effect and the production-chain effect to explain incentives behind the Nash trade policy intervention with cross-border unbundling of production processes: first, a government sometimes would use an import tariff and/or export tax as a way to shift the location of the final assembly in its favor, forcing an inefficient location, so that, conditional on the assembly relocation, it can maximize its ability to manipulate the terms of trade. Second, a rise in the tariff/tax on inputs could push up the world price of the final good through the production chain.
August 25 (Fri.), 2017, 14:15-17:30
14:15-15:45
髙塚 創 氏 Hajime Takatsuka (Kagawa University)
Interactions of Trade and Investment Policies
Abstract: In this study, we examine the effects of availability of capital taxes/subsidies on tariff policy and national welfare. To this aim, we use intra-industry trade models with symmetric two countries featuring mobile capital. As a benchmark case, a model with iceberg-type tariffs (Venables, 1987; Baldwin et al., 2003) is employed, and we show that the equilibrium capital tax rate is negative, which reduces tariff rates and improves efficiency. Second, we introduce ad valorem tariffs into the previous model, considering tariff revenue. In this case, we find that the above results hold if transportation costs are high. Otherwise, the equilibrium capital tax may turn to be positive and we could have the opposite results to the iceberg-tariff case. Finally, different from the previous two cases, we explore the issue in a model in which mobile capital is used as a variable input. Since capital taxes have a terms-or-trade effect in this case, the equilibrium capital tax rate is always positive, which raises tariff rates and worsens efficiency.
16:00-17:30
荒 知宏 氏 Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima University)
Relationship Specificity, Market Thickness and International Trade (with Taiji Furusawa)
Abstract: We develop a dynamic, search-theoretical, general-equilibrium model to investigate the effect of trade liberalization in vertically-related industries, emphasizing differential impacts depending on the degree of relationship specificity of components that are traded within the vertical relationships. The paper in particular unveils the role of search-and-matching and the resulting market restructuring of vertically-related industries in evaluating the impact of trade liberalization. We find that the higher is the relationship specificity, the thinner is the components market; and that a reduction in trade costs, either in final-goods trade or in components trade, makes the components market thinner and enhances social welfare. We also examine how trade liberalization changes trade volumes of final goods and components, and whether they exhibits complementarity.
July 28 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
野口 晴子 氏 Haruko Noguchi (Waseda University)
Spillover Effect of Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance as an Employment Promotion Policy for Family Caregivers (with Rong Fu, Akira Kawamura, Hideto Takahashi, and Nanako Tamiya)
Abstract: We evaluate a spillover effect of the Japanese public long-term care insurance (LTCI) as a policy to stimulate family caregivers’ labor force participation. Using a nationally representative data from 1995 to 2013, we apply difference-in-difference propensity score matching to investigate the spillover effect in two periods: before and after the introduction of the LTCI in 2000, and before and after its major amendment in 2006. Our results show that the LTCI introduction has significant and positive spillover effects on family caregivers’ labor force participation, and the effects varies by gender and age. In contrast, the LTCI amendment is found to have generally negative spillover effects on labor force participation of family caregivers. We draw attention to this spillover effects, as expanding labor market supply to sustain the economy would be a priority for Japan and other rapidly aging countries in the coming decades.
June 9 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
藤嶋 翔太 氏 Shota Fujishima (Tokyo University of Science)
The Size Distribution of ‘Cities’ Delineated with a Network Theory-based Method and Smartphone GPS Data (with Naoya Fujiwara, Yuki Akiyama, Ryosuke Shibasaki, and Hodaka Kaneda)
Abstract: We apply a method of community detection in network theory called map equation (Rosvall and Bergstrom, 2008) to the delineation of metropolitan areas in Japan which are independent of administrative boundaries. We divide the whole country into cells of approximately 1km by 1km, and let a random walker move over the cells. The switching probabilities between each pair of cells are specified by a GPS data on people flow taken from smartphone application. The map equation is motivated by information theory, whereby we find the partition of the cells that describes the long-run behavior of the random walker in the most effective manner. We find that the mix of two lognormal distributions yields a better fit with the size distribution of detected communities, or cities, than the distribution having Pareto upper tail. We present jump diffusion process as a stochastic process of city population underlying such a distribution.
May 26 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
青木 高明 氏 Takaaki Aoki (Kagawa University)
Cities and Roads as Pattern Formation on Landscape (with T. Nakagaki, N. Fujiwara, and Y.S. Hayakawa)
Abstract: In this talk, we report a math-geographical approach to study the pattern formation of cities and roads by modeling a simple rule in equations and test it on real landscapes, using highly detailed topographic database. We found that a simple recursive rule can reproduce a comparable pattern of cities and roads. On the other hand, on an ideally homogeneous space, the rule reproduces the regularly spaced, lattice-like pattern of cities as the same as the previous models. These results imply that various topographic patterns of cities and roads seen in real worlds are the result of adaptation of basic lattice-like pattern to individual conditions of landscapes.
April 28 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
宮﨑 浩一 氏 Koichi Miyazaki (Kagawa University)
Benefits of Borrowing Constraints in an Endogenous Growth Model
Abstract: This study analytically examines the effect of the burden of student loans on economic growth rate, population growth rate, and social welfare in an endogenous growth model. In developed countries, young people are borrowing increasingly larger amounts in order to finance their higher education. Several media reports indicate that student loans might affect young people’s decision-making with regard to important life events, such as childbirth. Thus, this study addresses the question of whether there should be a limit on how much people can borrow in order to finance their education. To answer this question, a three-period overlapping-generations model is constructed, where an agent borrows for education. The results show that the economic growth rate, the population growth rate, and social welfare can all be improved by restricting the amount of borrowing for education.
March 3 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
松尾 美和 氏 Miwa Matsuo (Kobe University)
Wasted in Vehicle: Travel Behavior of Children in Hispanic Immigrant Families
Abstract: In the U.S., Hispanic immigrant households who have low access to private vehicles typically depend to carpooling rather than taking transit, the tendency that is not observed for immigrants of other race/ethnicity groups. Moreover, my previous paper reveals that females of Hispanic immigrants are heavily dependent on others’ mobility and delay becoming drivers, even though they seem to choose auto-dependent lifestyle at household level. These findings leave a question about how they manage children’s trips. This paper explores whether children in Hispanic immigrant family households suffer from limited leisure trip opportunity or waste their time in sharing rides with other household members, using trip records in the National Household Travel Survey data of 2009.
February 10 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
中島 賢太郎 氏 Kentaro Nakajima (Tohoku University)
Identifying Neighborhood Effects among Firms: Evidence from Location Lotteries of the Tokyo Fish Market (with Kensuke Teshima)
Abstract: The idea that firms benefit from the characteristics of neighboring firms is central to the economics of agglomeration. A fundamental challenge in investigating such mechanisms arises from economic agents’ self-selection into locations. This makes it difficult to distinguish whether certain neighboring firms allow firms to perform better or whether such firms just cluster together. We overcome this challenge by analyzing neighborhood effects among intermediate wholesalers located in the Tokyo Tsukiji Fish Market and by exploiting a unique feature of their shop locations within the market: their locations are determined every 4-10 years by relocation lotteries. First, we confirm that their shop locations are indeed randomly distributed. Then, we find that the characteristics of the neighboring firms significantly affect firm performance. Specifically, the diversity of the types of neighboring firms as well as the fraction of neighboring firms selling similar products positively affect the performance of small size and specialized firms. We find no effect of characteristics of close neighbors not facing the same corridor, and thus not sharing buyers, which provides evidence that our results are not due to factors other than customers, such as technology spillovers. Our results provide the first randomization-based evidence of the key theoretical mechanism of the formation of market places: agglomeration saves the search cost of the buyers.
January 20 (Fri.), 2017, 16:00-17:30
小野 善康 氏 Yoshiyasu Ono (Osaka University)
Growth, Secular Stagnation and Wealth Preference
Abstract: In the early 1990s the Japanese economy suddenly stopped growing and since then has been suffering from aggregate demand stagnation. A similar situation has recently appeared in the EU and the USA. Researchers attribute the stagnation to various economic factors, such as market imperfections, productivity declines and policy failures, and therefore regard it as either a temporary or a supply-side phenomenon. This paper focuses on a human nature, viz. wealth preference, rather than supply-side factors and theoretically finds that with wealth preference an economy turns from steady growth to secular demand stagnation as it gets more affluent.
December 16 (Fri.), 2016, 16:00-17:30
伊藤 亮 氏 Ryo Itoh (Tohoku University)
A New Method of Inter-Regional Input-Output Analysis under Modern Economic Frameworks: Isard Revisited?
Abstract: This study suggests a method of input-output analysis originated from NEG models, or spatial general equilibrium models with Dixit-Stiglitz type monopolistic competition, considering generalized input-output structure among multiple industries. When we use a linearly approximated model based on a comparative statics analysis around an interior equilibrium of the original model, an inter-regional input-output table and several information of elasticity of substitution of each industry are sufficient for forecasting the effects of changes in exogenous variables such as population, transportation cost and production technology. Specifically, when we consider effects in the short-run in which firms can neither exit nor entry, our method is equivalent to the Isard (1951)’s inter-regional input-output model. However, under the setting that firms can exit and entry freely, our analysis yields a different result.
November 4 (Fri.), 2016, 16:00-17:30
山口 力 氏 Chikara Yamaguchi (Hiroshima University)
Does Endogenous Timing Matter in Implementing Partial Tax Harmonization? (with Jun-ichi Itaya)
Abstract: The endogenous timing of moves is analyzed in a repeated game setting of capital tax competition among countries asymmetric in terms of productivity, where a subgroup of countries implementing partial tax harmonization and outside countries choose whether to set capital taxes sequentially or simultaneously. It is shown that the simultaneous-move outcome prevails in every stage game of the infinitely repeated tax-competition game as its subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium if a tax union consists of similar countries, whereas both the simultaneous-move and the (Stackelberg) sequential-move outcomes can be sustained as subgame-perfect Nash equilibria when a tax union consists of dissimilar countries. This finding is in sharp contrast to that of Ogawa (2013). Under his two-stage game, when asymmetric countries in terms of productivity have opposite incentives toward terms of trade in order to manipulate the price of capital in their favor, there exists only a simultaneous-move Nash equilibrium. This difference arises from the fact that infinite repetition is able to support a wider range of behavior (e.g., a Stackelberg follower’s strategy) that is not a Nash equilibrium of the one-shot stage game of the repeated tax-competition game.
October 14 (Fri.), 2016, 16:00-17:30
小川 禎友 氏 Yoshitomo Ogawa (Kindai University)
Optimal Indirect Taxation in an Open Economy
Abstract: This paper analyzes optimal indirect taxation, consisting of commodity taxes and tariffs, under a revenue constraint in an open economy. In the paper, we consider the four alternatives of a small or large country adopting the destination or origin principle for commodity taxation. We derive the revenue-constrained optimal commodity taxes and tariffs in each case and then provide several optimal tax rules regarding the signs of the optimal commodity taxes and tariffs, and the relative optimal commodity tax and tariff rates for different commodities. We find that the optimal commodity tax rules are the same regardless of whether a country is small or large or whether the commodity taxation operates under the destination or origin principle. This implies that there is no difference in the policy implications of optimal commodity taxes across a wide range of situations. In contrast, the optimal tariff rules differ across all four cases.
September 30 (Fri.), 2016, 16:00-17:30
小川 光 氏 Hikaru Ogawa (University of Tokyo)
Endogenizing Government’s Objectives in Tax Competition with Capital Ownership (with Keisuke Kawachi and Taiki Susa)
Abstract: In this paper, we extend the standard approach of horizontal tax competition by endogenizing the policy objectives that governments pursue. Following the literature on strategic delegation games, we consider a pre-play stage, where jurisdictions commit themselves to act as Leviathan or as benevolent agents. We show that the sub-game perfect equilibria (SPEs) correspond to the three cases of tax competition between (i) the Leviathan and the benevolent government, (ii) both Leviathans, and (iii) both benevolent governments, depending on the form of capital ownership. The results provide grounds for the assumption of government objective made in literature, and explain why some governments behave as Leviathans, while others as benevolent agents in international tax competition.
September 3 (Sat.), 2016, 10:00-18:15 Venue: 香川大学幸町南キャンパス・南1号館2階・E22教室（交通案内）
GRIPS Policy Modeling Conference 2016
プログラムの詳細や参加申し込み方法等は，主催者の下記サイトをご覧下さい． GRIPS Policy Modeling Workshop (PMW)
April 16 (Sat.), 2016, 14:40-18:00 Venue: 香川大学幸町南キャンパス・又信記念館2階・第3会議室 （※ 上記Campus Mapに記載している「特別講義室」の1階上になります）
14:40-16:10
澤田 有希子 氏 Yukiko Sawada (Osaka University)
Commitment, Foreign Ownership, and Multinational Firms
Abstract: We investigate the effect of investment of management by a local partner which improves productivity efficiency of the subsidiary on overseas strategies of a multinational firm. The firm serves the foreign market via export or local production thorough Cournot competition with a foreign firm. Since a firm needs a higher operational skill of a local partner to reap a greater benefit from foreign production, the firm’s strategy depends on investment level of the local partner. We show the strategic relationship between the local partner and the multinational firm and derive the investment level and the firm’s strategy in the equilibrium. If bargaining power of the firm is too high or low, the firm cannot induce the local partner to make skill investment, which turns out to be the lowest payoff for both agents. If the bargaining power of the firm is medium level, the local partner invests in management skill and the firm takes local production strategy. In this case, they can get higher payoff.
16:30-18:00
馬 岩 氏 Yan Ma (Kobe University)
Supermodularity, Comparative Advantage, and Global Supply Chains
Abstract: We develop a North-South model with many tasks to investigate how task asymmetry and task complementarity affect the South getting involved in global supply chains. Task complementarity is considered using a mathematical property known as supermodularity. We demonstrate that the South is excluded from global supply chains if the production process exhibits supermodularity and tasks are symmetric. When tasks are asymmetric, there is a trade-off between the supermodularity effect and the comparative advantage effect to determine whether the South can get involved in the global supply chain. If the comparative advantage effect dominates the supermodularity effect, the South gets involved in the global supply chains and there exist gains from trade in tasks, which is complementary to the “productivity effect” in Grossman and Rossi-Hansberg (2008). Moreover, we demonstrate that the chain of comparative advantage may vary with the number of tasks offshored, due to complementarities between tasks. This contrasts with the predictions of standard Ricardian model, which only depends on comparative advantage.
March 11 (Fri.), 2016, 16:30-18:00
古沢 泰治 氏 Taiji Furusawa (Hitotsubashi University)
Offshoring, Relationship-Specificity, and Domestic Production Networks (with Keiko Ito, Tomohiko Inui, and Heiwai Tang)
Abstract: An economy is an interlinked web of production units. This paper examines both theoretically and empirically how firms’ offshoring decisions lead to reorganization of domestic production networks. We build a buyer-seller model that features supplier heterogeneity in efficiency and distance, as well as intermediate inputs that vary in the degree of specificity to the relationship with the buyer. A drop in offshoring costs will induce the more productive buyers to replace some of the less efficient domestic suppliers with foreign suppliers, with generic input suppliers more likely to be dropped despite their higher productivity. The resulting reduction in input costs will induce buyers to expand the geographic scope of domestic outsourcing. Using unique and exhaustive data on the buyer-seller network in Japan, we find evidence supporting the main predictions of the model.
February 19 (Fri.), 2016, 16:30-18:00
高橋 孝明 氏 Takaaki Takahashi (University of Tokyo)
A Tale of Two Cities: Urban Spatial Structure and Mode of Transportation
Abstract: This paper discusses the interdependence of the spatial structure of a city and the transport mode used there to obtain two types of equilibria. One is the “auto city equilibrium” at which workers, distributed over a city thinly, use an automobile for their commutes. The other is the “rapid transit city equilibrium” at which rapid transit services are provided for the commutes of workers, who are distributed densely. We have derived and characterized the conditions for each type of equilibrium. Furthermore, the possibility of multiple equilibria has been studied.
January 29 (Fri.), 2016, 16:30-18:00
荒見 玲子 氏 Reiko Arami (Nagoya University)
介護認定のガバナンス
Abstract: 本報告では、「委任」と「分業」で特徴づけられる社会保障給付の受給資格認定業務である要介護認定の実施過程を研究対象に、要介護認定に関わる行政職員・専門職の行動原理とその帰結を明らかにする。福井県内の市町をフィールドに、認定調査員・認定審査会委員・行政職員の悉皆アンケート調査及びインタビュー調査からデータを取得し、対人サービスの課業構造・専門性・アクター間の統制関係及びその地域における介護領域の権力構造といった観点から分析するものである。 関係資料：福井県における要介護認定調査研究
January 22 (Fri.), 2016, 16:30-18:00
内藤 巧 氏 Takumi Naito (Waseda University)
A Larger Country Sets a Lower Optimal Tariff
Abstract: We develop a new optimal tariff theory which is consistent with the macroeconomic evidence that a larger country sets a lower tariff. In our dynamic Dornbusch-Fischer-Samuelson Ricardian model, the long-run welfare effects of a rise in a country’s tariff consist of the revenue, distortionary, and growth effects. Based on this welfare decomposition, we obtain two main results. First, the optimal tariff of a country is positive. Second, a country’s marginal net benefit of deviating from free trade is usually decreasing in its absolute advantage parameter, implying that a larger (i.e., more technologically advanced) country sets a lower optimal tariff.
December 25 (Fri.), 2015, 14:50-18:00
14:50-16:20
大城 淳 氏 Jun Oshiro (Okinawa University)
Industrial Structure in Urban Accounting (with Yasuhiro Sato)
Abstract: We develop a multisector general equilibrium model of a system of cities to study the quantitative impacts of a change in industrial structure on spatial transformation in Japan. We first identify three types of wedges that capture the extent to which the standard urban economic model fails to explain empirically. Second, we illustrate the factors behind the distribution of population. Both inter-sectoral and inter-regional differences in labor wedges play the key role in accounting for the rank-size relationship. Finally, we run a scenario where productivity in 2001–2008 is replaced with that in 1972–1979 with the other wedges and parameters fixed. The restoration in productivity leads to a revival of currently peripheral regions whereas such the change makes the entire distribution of population concentrated rather than dispersed. In other words, technological evolution associated with structural transformation itself cannot explain the spatial concentration over the decades.
16:30-18:00
森 知也 氏 Tomoya Mori (Kyoto University)
Spatial Scales of Industrial Agglomerations and their Sensitivity to Transport Costs (with Se-il Mun, Shosei Sakaguchi, and Kohei Takeda)
Abstract: In this paper, we identify the locations of individual agglomerations explicitly on a map by using the cluster-detection methodology developed by Mori and Smith (2014), and investigates how the spatial scale of industrial agglomeration is affected by the level of transport costs. As argued by Mori and Smith (2015), the spatial scale of agglomerations have both local and global dimensions, and they respond oppositely to the level of transport costs. The former can essentially be measured in terms of the average areal size of an individual agglomeration, whereas the latter in terms of the number of agglomerations. The sensitivity to transport costs is measured in terms of average value transport cost (AVC), i.e., average transport cost per distance per value of shipped goods. Using the panel data of manufacturing establishment locations and their shipment patterns for 1995-2010 in Japan, we show that the industries that are subject to higher AVC have a larger number of agglomerations, i.e., globally more dispersed, while their agglomerations are on average smaller in terms of areal size, i.e., locally more concentrated. These results are consistent with the recent theoretical results from many-region models of new economic geography (e.g., Ikeda et al. (2015), Akamatsu et al. (2015)).
November 20 (Fri.), 2015, 16:30-18:00
柳瀬 明彦 氏 Akihiko Yanase (Nagoya University)
Trade Costs and Welfare-worsening Free Trade Agreement (with Masafumi Tsubuku)
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of concluding a free trade agreement (FTA) in the presence of international trade costs between countries. By constructing a three-country model of imperfect competition with endogenously determined (external) tariffs, we demonstrate that in the presence of trade costs, the FTA member countries may have an incentive to employ higher external tariff as they form the FTA. This finding is in contrast with the tariff complementarity arguments in the existing studies assuming no trade costs. We also find that the non-member country’s welfare may worsen even if there are tariff complementarity effects. Furthermore, the findings show that the FTA is likely to result in the deterioration of the member countries’ welfare, depending on the trade costs.
October 23 (Fri.), 2015, 16:30-18:00
有賀 健 氏 Kenn Ariga (Kyoto University)
Minimum Wage through the Looking Glass
Abstract: We investigate impacts of two major increases in minimum wage of Thailand in 2012, and 2013. In spite of the large increase in average wage induced by the hike, the effect on employment is positive. Given that roughly 40% of daily wage samples are less than the minimum, we build and estimate a model that incorporate (minimum wage) compliance decision. We use the switching regressions to estimate the gap in wages between above and below minimum wage. This gap is sizable and statistically significant for daily wage, but small and statistically insignificant for monthly wage. When the employer’s probability for compliance is included in the employment probability of individuals, we find that the higher compliance rate positively influence the employment probability. These findings strongly suggest that the minimum wage hike in 2012~13 induced north-eastward shift of the equilibrium along the labor supply schedule. In the last part of the analysis, we offer a variety of circumstantial evidence in support of tacit collusion among large scale employers in setting daily wages.
October 1 (Thu.), 2015, 16:30-18:00
森田 果 氏 Hatsuru Morita (Tohoku University)
Criminal Prosecution and Physician Supply
Abstract: While there are many evidences of the effect of medical malpractice tort, research on the effect of medical malpractice criminal sanctions are rare. This paper tries to identify the causal effect of criminal prosecution utilizing exogenous variations over the likelihood of criminal prosecution. In 2004, a medical accident occurred in Fukushima prefecture, Japan, and an obstetrician was prosecuted one year after. This prosecution exogenously changed the likelihood of criminal prosecution in Fukushima prefecture. Using difference-in-differences strategy and synthetic control strategy, we estimate the causal effect of criminal prosecution. The prosecution decreased the number of obstetricians by 12% and some of them changed their business to gynecology, which involves lower risk. However, the effect is concentrated on obstetricians, not all physicians. In addition, the paper shows that the sentence of acquittal did not resolve the effect caused by the initial prosecution. This illuminates the importance of criminal prosecution itself, not subsequent criminal sanctions.
September 18 (Fri.), 2015, 16:30-18:00 (Joint with Economics Workshop)
三好 祐輔 氏 Yusuke Miyoshi (Kagawa University)
情報漏えいにつながる行動に関する実証分析 (with 竹村敏彦，花村憲一)
Abstract: 情報セキュリティの観点から問題となる行動の中でも情報漏えいにつながる個人の行動に着目し, その行動がどのような要因に直接的・間接的に影響を受けているかなどについて分析を行い, この種の行動を防止・抑止するために組織がとるべき効果的な施策について考察を行う. 分析の結果から, 情報漏えいにつながる行動をとらせないようにするためには, 不正容認風土を改善することが最も大きな効果があること, またコンプライアンス意識の向上は直接的な効果はそれほど大きくないものの, 様々な要因を介した間接的な効果を踏まえた総合効果は不正容認風土の改善に次ぐ効果があることが示唆された. さらに, 不正容認風土に影響を与える要因としてコンプライアンス意識および従業員満足度の向上があることから, 職場環境の改善とともに従業員満足度の向上策の実施やコンプライアンス教育の実施がより大きな効果を生む可能性があることがわかった.
September 11 (Fri.), 2015, 16:30-18:00 (Joint with Economics Workshop)
青木 高明 氏 Takaaki Aoki (Kagawa University)
近世・近代の郡村誌データに基づく村落ネットワークのクラスタ解析 (with S. Murayama, N. Higashi, T. Mizoguchi)
Abstract: 近世・近代の郡村誌には，当時の人口、戸数に加えて土地の地勢や作物，自然環境、寺社等について豊富な記述が残っている．これは世界史的にも稀なデータ群であり、本研究ではこのデータから当時の人口動態・生産システムを統計・数理科学のアプローチから読み解く事を目的とする．従来歴史学研究では，史料単位を記述単位として個別村落の歴史について語ってきたが，実際の各村落は独立経済を主軸に，村-村間の流通による相互依存性を前提として成立している．我々は，この村落間の繋がりをネットワークとして記述しコミュニティ検出を行うことで，新しい歴史記述単位としての村落クラスタを同定する手法を導入した．具体例として特に肥後国天草郡について先行的に解析を進めており，村落クラスタと当時の行政区の比較を行った結果を紹介する．
August 20 (Thu.), 2015, 12:55-18:00
Workshop on “International Trade and Spatial Economics”
Speakers:
田渕 隆俊 氏 Takatoshi Tabuchi (University of Tokyo)
Elastic Labor Supply and Agglomeration (with T. Ago, T. Morita, K. Yamamoto)
曽 道智 氏 Dao-Zhi Zeng (Tohoku University)
Mobile Capital, International Inequalities, and the Welfare Gains from Trade (with X. Yang)
村田 安寧 氏 Yasusada Murata (Nihon University)
New Trade Models, Elusive Welfare Gains (with K. Behrens, Y. Kanemoto)
大久保 敏弘 氏 Toshihiro Okubo (Keio University)
Early Agglomeration or Late Agglomeration?: Two Phases of Development with Spatial Sorting (with R. Forslid)
Detailed Program (2015.7.24.version)
May 19 (Tue.), 2015, 14:50-16:20 (Joint with Economics Workshop)
髙塚 創 氏 Hajime Takatsuka (Kagawa University)
介護保険法の2005年改正と要介護認定における評価バイアス: 自然実験的検証 (with 石濱実花, 岩田龍郎)
Abstract: 介護保険法の2005年改正によって，従前の要介護度区分における「要支援」は「要支援1」と呼ばれるようになり，給付限度額の引き下げがなされた．本研究では，ある中核市の介護給付費レセプトデータを用いて，こういった制度改正が要介護認定の評価に与えた影響を検証する．自然実験（natural experiment）の考えを用いて検証を行ったところ，要支援維持率は改正後において有意に低い結果が得られ，給付限度額の引き下げ等を回避するために，要介護認定評価にバイアスが加えられた可能性が示唆された．
February 27 (Fri.), 2015, 16:30-18:00 (Joint with Economics Workshop)
森田 忠士 氏 Tadashi Morita (Kindai University)
Trade Integration, Welfare and Horizontal Multinationals: A Three-Country Model (with Fabio Cerina and Kazuhiro Yamamoto)
Abstract: In this paper, we construct a three country model with national and multinational (multiplant) firms in which oligopolistic firms in each countries export. We investigate the effect of trade liberalization between two countries on the third country. When the fixed costs of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is sufficiently large, the firm does not conduct FDI and trade liberalization always decreases the welfare level of the third country. When the fixed costs of FDI is small, trade liberalization may increase the welfare level of the third country.
September 11 (Thu.), 2014, 16:30-18:00 (Joint with Economics Workshop)
幸町南キャンパス・又信記念館2階・第3会議室
長町 康平 氏 Kohei Nagamachi (Kagawa University)
Welfare Gain from Functional Specialization of Cities
Abstract: To investigate the welfare gain from increasingly important functional specialization of cities, this paper develops a static spatial equilibrium model of a system of cities in which ex ante identical locations specialize in different stages of production, resulting in a unique city size distribution with the comovement of income, population, factor prices, and urban diversity as observed for the U.S. cities. It is shown that for a wide, empirically plausible range of parameters the welfare gain is significant due to a powerful effect of urban diversity that dominates a sever negative impact of higher land rents in top cities. It is also shown that an income redistribution policy can further enhance the welfare gain by mitigating excess agglomeration.